Yemen's Ongoing Conflict: A Decade of Humanitarian Crisis and Fragile Ceasefire
Ten years have passed since Saudi Arabia led a military intervention in Yemen’s civil war, a conflict now stalled and marked by a tenuous ceasefire established in 2022. This ceasefire raises hopes for an end to hostilities, amidst increased U.S. engagement against the Houthis due to their attacks on navigation in the Red Sea. The intervention initiated on March 26, 2015, aimed to restore the authority of then-President Abdo Rabu Mansur Hadi, who was ousted by Houthi Shiite rebels backed by Iran; the conflict quickly escalated following the rebels’ capture of the capital, Sanaa, and vast areas in northwestern Yemen.
In October 2022, a UN-mediated truce brought a halt to active hostilities, inching towards a political compromise. Unfortunately, the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023 has since stalled these peace efforts. This article will explore the decade-long conflict in Yemen, the humanitarian tragedy it has spawned, and the circonstances thwarting the signing of a lasting ceasefire.
The humanitarian crisis in Yemen ranks among the worst globally. Since 2015, the military coalition’s aerial and naval attacks have reportedly led to over 150,000 deaths, according to the United Nations. Moreover, an estimated 227,000 fatalities are attributed to famine and a lack of healthcare services. Approximately 45 million people, or 14% of Yemen’s population, remain displaced, most having been forced to flee their homes multiple times. Furthermore, it’s estimated that two-thirds of Yemenis, approximately 21.6 million people, urgently require humanitarian aid and protective services.
As the conflict has dragged on, the initial unity of the coalition behind the Saudi-led intervention has fractured. The suspension of Qatar from the alliance in 2017, amid a regional diplomatic crisis, further complicated matters. While Saudi Arabia has focused on supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government—now led by a Presidential Leadership Council under Rashad al-Alimi—the U.A.E. has backed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which has even clashed with the Yemeni government over territorial control. This divergence of interests between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi highlights the complexities of Yemen’s internal conflict, where groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State also operate independently amidst the chaos.
The United States has shifted its focus towards repressing the Houthi militia, which is viewed as part of Iran's Axis of Resistance. Recent decisions by the U.S. to announce increased offensives in the Red Sea are seen as efforts to reduce Iranian influence while also responding to Tehran regarding nuclear negotiations.
The renewed turmoil in Gaza has drastically impacted Yemen's political landscape. The Houthi involvement in the conflict, particularly through assaults on vessels associated with Israel, has exacerbated tensions in the Red and Arabian Seas—key maritime trade routes. In December, Hans Grundberg, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, remarked on the relative calm along the front lines in Yemen, but acknowledged that ongoing conflicts like those in Gaza and others in Lebanon continue to complicate UN-led mediation efforts as well as any potential for further progress in political negotiations.
Efforts by Oman to mediate are ongoing, with the aim of not only easing current tensions but also seeking to bring to an end one of the most devastating conflicts of the early 21st century. As Yemen navigates this intricate and challenging landscape, the international community holds its breath, hoping for a resolution that could finally offer relief to a nation long ravaged by war.
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